Posted on


The fall of Bitcoin in early February

As we write this article the Bitcoin has returned to $ 7,915 after the price fluctuations have seen the price of the world’s most famous cryptocurrency fall to a value close to $ 6,000 after a steep two-day descent that started at over 9,300 $.


The most famous digital currency has fallen by 69% from the all-time high of December, and almost 56% since the beginning of the year. This marked fall in the value of Bitcoin has rekindled the fears of the speculative bubble and triggered the chain effect of the race to sell positions on the market, the panic and the consequent sales.


Yet, as widely stated in the previous episode, Bitcoin will remain alive as long as a group of computers will run the core software on the network and we can imagine that only an extreme scenario could lead to its annihilation.


After seeing the first 3 of the 7 apocalyptic scenarios that could lead to the extinction of Bitcoin from the face of the earth, we continue with the roundup of the missing.


Scenario 4: Decision of all world governments to block cryptocurrencies


Scenario 4: Decision of all world governments to block cryptocurrencies

Probability of happening in the next 5 years = medium to low.

Governments, although united, cannot destroy Bitcoin because of its decentralized nature. However, they could monitor and limit their use in their jurisdiction. They can decide, for example, to block the bank accounts of the companies operating in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and to prohibit the creation of any new connected activity.


If, however, the decision to block cryptocurrencies was not unanimous in all the governments of the world then the impact would be limited as the companies in the sector will simply move to more friendly jurisdictions. This is exactly what happened after China banned the use of cryptocurrencies for the exchange of internal orders last year.

It is unimaginable that a global ban is applied by all the states of the world considering also the fact that Bitcoin is already legal in states like Japan. What we expect is that rather than prohibiting the use of cryptocurrencies, it will happen that these are regulated for the dual purpose of collecting tax benefits and protecting individual investors.

Scenario 5: Major hacking

Scenario 5: Major hacking

Probability of happening in the next 5 years = medium to high.

This scenario could occur in different ways. In the first case, called “51% attack”, an attacker attested within the cryptocurrency network can try to hack the protocol itself. This attack is theoretically possible, but its probability is very low. Why would a leading actor on the Bitcoin network want to destroy his profitable source of profit?


An attack from the outside would require huge investments to equip oneself with mining and energy tools and even in this case … why burn so many investments to have no profit?

More likely that the hacking can take place on an application that revolves around the protocol but that cannot completely block the cryptocurrency.

An example of this series? … when Mt. Gox , the most popular Bitcoin money changer of the time, was hacked in 2014 (an example of this attack), it managed 70% of all Bitcoin transactions. In February 2014, he admitted losing $ 450 million in bitcoins. Within a few months it failed. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin has depreciated by 30 percent, but then started to rise again.

The cryptofurt of the century? … more than half a billion dollars: it is the enormous amount of cryptocurrency which, on the night between 25 and 26 January, was taken from Coincheck, Japan ‘s largest cryptocurrency exchange platform. A decline for the value of crypto in general but then again.


Scenario 6: a “best” cryptocurrency


Scenario 6: a "best" cryptocurrency


Probability of happening in the next 5 years = medium to low.

Is it possible for a “better” cryptocurrency to replace Bitcoin ? A digital currency that is more profitable and has lower transaction costs for users, all the others being equal.


This new cryptocurrency should be so “superior” that it overcomes both the public barrier (today Bitcoin represents about 40% of the global capitalization of all cryptvalues) and is the barrier of knowledge (today the term Bitcoin is in fact synonymous with cryptocurrency even if, in fact, it is only one of many). The fact that to date it has not happened yet bears witness to this difficulty.


Scenario 7: market fatigue


Scenario 7: market fatigue


Probability of happening in the next 5 years = low.

If companies working in the cryptocurrency ecosystem could no longer provide any tangible value in the real world, people could slowly start to lose confidence in this market.


In this case, market growth would slow down and the value of Bitcoin will eventually stabilize. The cryptocurrency market would lose its attractiveness in terms of investments, leading to a more or less rapid decline.

This scenario is state of the art little (or not at all) achievable because the use of blockchain and cryptocurrency is only in its infancy and much more time will have to pass until it becomes boring.


Invest in Bitcoin with Libertex


One of Christopher Tietjens’ recommended brokers allows you to invest easily and securely in Bitcoin : Libertex .